Skip to content
Thinking in Diagrams

Theory of change

Strategy & decisionsField guide · Strategy & decisions · 1 of 6

What must change, and in what order, to reach a long-term outcome?

A theory of change is drawn backward from a long-term goal: beneath each outcome sit the outcomes that must come first, each joined to it by a line with an arrowhead, and a numbered intervention marks each place where someone must act.

Marks

Section titled “Marks”
MarkDrawn asStands forSource
long-term outcomethe rounded box at the topthe goal the program is forGlossary; Superwomen, stage 1
A theory of change's long-term outcome At the top, a rounded box, the long-term outcome: fewer deaths and illnesses from household smoke, with a line with an arrowhead pointing up into it from below. fewer deaths and illnessesfrom household smoke
outcomea rounded box with a written statea needed condition, not yet in placeGlossary; Superwomen, stage 1
A theory of change's outcome A rounded box, an outcome: women and children breathe less smoke at home. women and children breatheless smoke at home
preconditiona solid line with an arrowhead, up to the outcome it is needed forthe outcome at its tail must come before the one at its headSuperwomen, stages 1–2
A theory of change's precondition Two rounded boxes, each an outcome, joined by a line with an arrowhead pointing up: households cook every meal on a clean stove or fuel, below, must come before women and children breathe less smoke at home, above. women and children breatheless smoke at home households cook everymeal on a clean stove or fuel
interventiona dashed line with an arrowhead, carrying boxed numbers keyed to a list of activities; in the figure, solid, marked by its boxed number, since a dash means hypothesis in this bookan action the initiative takes to bring about an outcome that would not occur sufficiently without itSuperwomen, stage 4; Glossary
A theory of change's intervention Two rounded boxes, each an outcome. From the lower, households can afford a clean stove and its fuel, a line with an arrowhead runs up to the upper, households cook every meal on a clean stove or fuel, carrying a small box numbered 1. Beneath them, a key: box 1, a subsidy for a clean stove and its fuel. households cook everymeal on a clean stove or fuel 1 households can afford aclean stove and its fuel 1 a subsidy for a clean stove and its fuel
interactiona sideways line with an arrowhead between two outcomes side by sidetwo outcomes that affect each other; not in the figureGlossary
A theory of change's interaction Two rounded boxes side by side, each an outcome, joined by a sideways line with an arrowhead: households can afford a clean stove and its fuel, on the left, points to stoves meeting WHO's emission targets are sold locally, on the right. households can afford aclean stove and its fuel stoves meeting WHO's emissiontargets are sold locally
assumptiona capital letter in a small circle at an outcome’s corner, keyed to a lista condition already in place that the outcome relies onSuperwomen, stage 1; Glossary
A theory of change's assumption A rounded box, an outcome: stoves meeting WHO's emission targets are sold locally, with a small circle lettered A at its top left corner. Beneath it, a key: circle A, stoves meeting WHO's emission targets exist. stoves meeting WHO's emissiontargets are sold locally A A stoves meeting WHO's emission targets exist
accountability ceilinga dotted line above the long-term outcomewhat lies beyond the initiative’s accountability; not in the figure, which has no broken lineGlossary; webinar

A line with an arrowhead

Section titled “A line with an arrowhead”

A line with an arrowhead means must come before: the outcome at its tail is a precondition of the one at its head, and the pathway is worked out downward from the long-term outcome. An effect produces a change in the variable at its head; this line orders two conditions, and why one should lead to the next is written beside the pathway, as a justification.

Clean cookstoves to cut illness from indoor smoke

Section titled “Clean cookstoves to cut illness from indoor smoke”
Clean cookstoves to cut illness from indoor smoke, as a theory of change Five rounded boxes, each an outcome, joined by lines with arrowheads pointing up to the outcome each must come before. At the top, the long-term outcome: fewer deaths and illnesses from household smoke. Beneath it: women and children breathe less smoke at home. Beneath that: households cook every meal on a clean stove or fuel. Beneath that, side by side: households can afford a clean stove and its fuel, whose line up carries a small box numbered 1; and stoves meeting WHO's emission targets are sold locally, whose line up carries a small box numbered 2, with a small circle lettered A at its top left corner. Beneath them, a key: box 1, a subsidy for a clean stove and its fuel; box 2, certifying stoves to WHO's emission targets; circle A, stoves meeting WHO's emission targets exist. fewer deaths and illnessesfrom household smoke women and children breatheless smoke at home households cook everymeal on a clean stove or fuel households can afford aclean stove and its fuel 1 stoves meeting WHO's emissiontargets are sold locally A 2 1 a subsidy for a clean stove and its fuel 2 certifying stoves to WHO's emission targets A stoves meeting WHO's emission targets exist

Household air pollution caused an estimated 2.9 million deaths a year in 2021, and about 2.1 billion people cook on open fires or inefficient stoves (World Health Organization). Fewer deaths depend on less smoke breathed at home, which depends on every meal cooked clean, which depends on stoves households can afford, through a subsidy (intervention 1), and stoves meeting WHO’s emission targets on sale, through certification (intervention 2). Assumption A, that such stoves exist, already holds.

When to draw one

Section titled “When to draw one”

Draw one to design an initiative from the outcome it is for, to evaluate each outcome at the right time and in the right sequence, or to explain afterward why an initiative worked or didn’t: Clark and Anderson’s three uses.

When not to draw one

Section titled “When not to draw one”

Where someone needs a program understood at a glance, Clark and Anderson point to a logic model, a list of the program’s resources, activities, outputs and outcomes. A theory of change, they add, is a lot of work and takes time.

Reasoning and polish

Section titled “Reasoning and polish”
  • Reasoning4 of 5
  • Polish5 of 5outcome pathway → testable theory of change
  1. A long-term outcome and the preconditions beneath it
  2. Assumptions, justifications and interventions on the pathway
  3. Indicators, a narrative, and a check that the theory is plausible, doable and testable
Section titled “Related types”

No type is listed as related to this one.

Sources

Section titled “Sources”